\u6628\u65e5\u306e\u8a18\u8ff0\u306b\u8aa4\u308a\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u306e\u3067\u8a02\u6b63\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002Pareto\u304c\u5831\u544a\u3057\u305f\u306e\u306f\u3001\u6240\u5f97\u5206\u5e03\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u30a4\u30bf\u30ea\u30a2\u306e\u571f\u5730\u306e80%\u304c\u5730\u4e3b\u306e\u4e0a\u4f4d20%\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u5360\u3081\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002
\n\u3053\u308c\u3092\u62e1\u5f35\u3057\u3066Pareto\u5206\u5e03(\u7b2c\u4e00\u7a2e\u30d1\u30ec\u30fc\u30c8\u5206\u5e03\uff09\u3068\u3044\u3046\u78ba\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u95a2\u6570\u304c\u5c0e\u5165\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002
\nP(X>x)=(xm\/x)^\u03b1 when x>xm, =1 when x < xm \u3067\u3059\u3002\u3059\u306a\u308f\u3061\u3001\u5909\u6570X\u304cx\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306e\u5024\u3067\u3042\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u304cx^(-\u03b1)\u306b\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5206\u5e03\u3067\u3059\u3002
\n80:20\u3092\u4e0e\u3048\u308b\u306e\u306f\u3001\u03b1=log_4(5)=1.16\u306e\u6642\u3060\u305d\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002\u5730\u4e3b\u306e\u6240\u6709\u3059\u308b\u571f\u5730\u306e\u9762\u7a4d\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u5834\u5408\u306fX\u306f\u4e0a\u304b\u3089\u306e\u9806\u4f4d\u3067\u30011\u756a\u76ee\u3088\u308a\u3082\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u9806\u4f4d\u306f\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001x < xm \u306e\u3068\u304d\u306f\u8003\u3048\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u306d\u3002
\n\u3055\u3066\u3001\u7d4c\u6e08\u5b66\u3067\u3044\u3046Pareto\u5206\u5e03\u306f\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u3067\u3044\u3046\u3079\u304d\u4e57\u5247\uff08\u3079\u304d\u4e57\u5206\u5e03\uff09\u3068\u540c\u3058\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001wikipedia\u82f1\u8a9e\u7248\u306e\u8a18\u8ff0\u304c\u8a73\u3057\u3044\u3067\u3059\u3002
\nhttps:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Power_law
\n\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u306e\u3079\u304d\u4e57\u5247\u306f\u30b1\u30d7\u30e9\u30fc\u5247\u3084\u30af\u30fc\u30ed\u30f3\u306e\u6cd5\u5247\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u5358\u7d14\u306a\u5f0f\u306e\u5f62\u3067\u3079\u304d\u4e57\u304c\u51fa\u3066\u304f\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3082\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u3053\u308c\u306f\u533a\u5225\u3059\u308b\u307b\u3046\u304c\u826f\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u78ba\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u3068\u3057\u3066\u51fa\u3066\u304f\u308b\u307b\u3046\u304c\u9762\u767d\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3053\u3061\u3089\u3092\u53d6\u308a\u4e0a\u3052\u307e\u3059\u3002
\n\u3044\u308d\u3044\u308d\u9762\u767d\u3044\u7279\u5fb4\u304c\u3042\u3063\u3066\uff1a
\n\u30fb\u03b1>2\u306e\u6642\u3057\u304b\u660e\u78ba\u306b\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3055\u308c\u305f\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u304c\u5b58\u5728\u3057\u306a\u3044
\n\u30fb\u03b1>3\u306e\u6642\u3057\u304b\u660e\u78ba\u306b\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3055\u308c\u305f\u5206\u6563\u304c\u5b58\u5728\u3057\u306a\u3044
\n\u30fb\u81ea\u7136\u754c\u306e\u73fe\u8c61\u3067\u306f\u5206\u6563\u304c\u660e\u78ba\u306b\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3055\u308c\u306a\u3044\u5834\u5408\uff082<\u03b1<3)\u304c\u591a\u304f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306f\u5c11\u6570\u306e\u5916\u308c\u5024\u304c\u5168\u4f53\u306b\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u4e0e\u3048\u308b\uff08\u30d6\u30e9\u30c3\u30af\u30b9\u30ef\u30f3\u73fe\u8c61\uff09
\n\u5927\u5730\u9707\u3084\u682a\u4fa1\u66b4\u843d\u306fblack swan\u73fe\u8c61\u3068\u8a00\u3048\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u305d\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3082\u3075\u308b\u307e\u3044\uff08\u7279\u306b\u983b\u5ea6\uff09\u3092\u660e\u3089\u304b\u306b\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u91cd\u8981\u3067\u3059\u3002\u7279\u306b\u3001\u3069\u3053\u307e\u3067\u3079\u304d\u4e57\u5247\u306b\u5f93\u3046\u304b\u306f\u983b\u5ea6\u306e\u4f4e\u3044\u73fe\u8c61\u3067\u306f\u308f\u304b\u3089\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001\u3079\u304d\u4e57\u5247\u3092\u3082\u305f\u3089\u3059\u6761\u4ef6\u306e\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u306a\u88cf\u4ed8\u3051\u304c\u671b\u307e\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3069\u3053\u307e\u3067\u308f\u304b\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u82f1\u8a9e\u306f https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Black_swan_theory
\n\u203b “black swan”\u3067\u691c\u7d22\u3059\u308b\u30682010\u5e74\u306e\u6709\u540d\u306a\u6620\u753b\u304c\u51fa\u3066\u304d\u307e\u3059\u306d\u3002
\n“The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.”
\nmetaphor\u3000\u30e1\u30bf\u30d5\u30a1\u30fc\u3000\u6bd4\u55a9
\ninappropriately rationalized \u4e0d\u9069\u5207\u306b\u5408\u7406\u5316\u3055\u308c\u308b\/\u7406\u89e3\u3057\u305f\u3064\u3082\u308a\u306b\u306a\u308b
\nhindsight \u300c\u30cf\u300d\u30a4\u30f3\u30c9\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8\u3000\u5f8c\u77e5\u6075\u3000\u3000Hindsight is 20:20. \u5f8c\u77e5\u6075\u306f\u8996\u529b2.0\u3060\u3002
\n\u201dThe expression was used in the original manner(a Latin expression assuming the black swans do not exist) until around 1697 when Dutch mariners saw black swans living in Australia. After this, the term was reinterpreted to mean an unforeseen and consequential event.\u201d
\nLatin \u30e9\u30c6\u30f3\u8a9e\u306e
\nmariners \u822a\u6d77\u8005
\nan unforeseen and consequential event \u4e88\u671f\u305b\u306c\u91cd\u5927\u306a\u51fa\u6765\u4e8b
\n\u3000consequential = 1. following as a result or effect < consequence 2. important, significant \u3053\u3053\u306f2\u3067\u3059\u306d\u3002
\n\u201dThe reinterpreted theory was articulated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, starting in 2001, to explain:
\n\u30fb The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
\n\u30fb The non-computability of the probability of consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
\n\u30fb The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to the substantial role of rare events in historical affairs.\u201d
\narticulate \u307e\u3068\u3081\u308b
\ndisproportionate \u5272\u5408\u306b\u3042\u308f\u306a\u3044
\nboth individually and collectively \u500b\u4eba\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3082\u96c6\u56e3\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3082
\n“Epistemological approach” \u8a8d\u8b58\u8ad6\u7684\u624b\u6cd5<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u6628\u65e5\u306e\u8a18\u8ff0\u306b\u8aa4\u308a\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u306e\u3067\u8a02\u6b63\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002Pareto\u304c\u5831\u544a\u3057\u305f\u306e\u306f\u3001\u6240\u5f97\u5206\u5e03\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u30a4\u30bf\u30ea\u30a2\u306e\u571f\u5730\u306e80%\u304c\u5730\u4e3b\u306e\u4e0a\u4f4d20%\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u5360\u3081\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002 \u3053\u308c\u3092\u62e1\u5f35\u3057\u3066Pareto\u5206\u5e03(\u7b2c\u4e00\u7a2e\u30d1\u30ec\u30fc\u30c8\u5206\u5e03\uff09\u3068\u3044\u3046\u78ba\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u95a2\u6570\u304c\u5c0e\u5165\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002 P(X>x)=(xm\/x)^\u03b1 when x>xm, =1 when x < xm \u3067\u3059\u3002\u3059\u306a\u308f\u3061\u3001\u5909\u6570X\u304cx\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306e\u5024\u3067\u3042\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u304cx^(-\u03b1)\u306b\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5206\u5e03\u3067\u3059\u3002 80:20\u3092\u4e0e\u3048\u308b\u306e\u306f\u3001\u03b1=log_4(5)=1.16\u306e\u6642\u3060\u305d\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002\u5730\u4e3b\u306e\u6240\u6709\u3059\u308b\u571f\u5730\u306e\u9762\u7a4d\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u5834\u5408\u306fX\u306f\u4e0a\u304b\u3089\u306e\u9806\u4f4d\u3067\u30011\u756a\u76ee\u3088\u308a\u3082\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u9806…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[52],"tags":[15],"class_list":["post-2244","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-economics"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sekaiken.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2244","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sekaiken.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sekaiken.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sekaiken.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sekaiken.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2244"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.sekaiken.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2244\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6064,"href":"https:\/\/www.sekaiken.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2244\/revisions\/6064"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sekaiken.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2244"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sekaiken.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2244"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sekaiken.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2244"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}